CMD Blog
7 Easy Ways to Find Value Bets in Online Sportsbooks (Most Miss!)
If you want to make money from sports betting, you need to do more than guess who’s going to win.
You need to find value bets.
In this guide, I’ll show you 7 simple and powerful ways to find value bets, even if you’re a complete beginner. These are practical tips you can use today for soccer betting, horse racing, or any other sport.
First, What Are Value Bets?
A value bet is when a bookmaker offers odds that are too high compared to the real chance of something happening.
Example:
You think Team A has a 60% chance to win.
The bookie gives you odds of 2.10 (which means about a 47.6% chance).
That’s a value bet, because you’re getting better odds than you should.
If you keep finding value bets like this, you can make a profit in the long run, even if you lose some bets.
1. Look for Odds That Change Fast
Sometimes, bookies set odds too high when they first post them, and then quickly fix them as people start betting.
How to use this:
- Visit an odds site like OddsPortal.
- Watch when the odds change fast, for example, a team goes from 2.50 to 2.10 in a few hours.
- If you can bet before the odds drop, you’re probably getting a value bet.
This works great for 1X2 value bets (Win-Draw-Win) in football and other sports.
2. Bet on Small Leagues or Niche Sports
Big leagues (like the Premier League or NBA) are hard to beat. The odds are usually very accurate.
But smaller leagues? Bookies make more mistakes.
Try this:
- Look at lower football leagues, women's matches, or lesser-known sports.
- Compare your opinion or stats to the odds.
- If something looks off, it might be value.
These are great places for value bets football predictions that most people ignore.
3. Use Your Own Predictions
Don’t just follow the odds. Try to make your own guess about what should happen, even just using logic.
Example:
- You know a team is missing 3 top players, but the odds haven’t changed yet.
- That team is less likely to win now.
- If the bookmaker hasn't adjusted, it could be a value bet to bet against them.
This works for value bets predictions in all sports, even without fancy models.
4. How to Find Value Bets in Horse Racing
Horse racing is full of surprises, which means more chances for value.
Easy tips:
- Bet on horses with good recent form but not huge hype.
- Look for price changes. If a horse's odds drop from 20.00 to 12.00, someone knows something.
- Watch the going (track condition). Some horses run better on soft or firm ground.
This is how pros do value bets tips in racing. Smart, not flashy.
5. Compare Bookmakers
Different online sportsbooks often have different odds for the same game. That’s your chance to find value.
What to do:
- Use odds comparison sites (like Oddschecker or Betexplorer).
- Look for odds that are way higher than the rest.
- If one site offers 2.50 but others offer 2.10, that might be a mistake, or a value bet.
This is one of the simplest ways of finding value bets.
6. Look for Situations the Bookies Might Miss
Bookies mostly use data, not always logic or motivation.
Look for:
- A team resting players before a big match.
- A team needing to win vs. a team that doesn't care.
- Weather changes, bad travel schedules, or big crowd support.
These situations can turn normal odds into value bets, especially late in the season.
7. Track Your Bets and Learn
If you want to improve fast, start tracking your bets.
Here’s how:
- Write down each bet: the odds you got, and the final odds before kickoff (the closing odds).
- If you usually get better odds than the closing line, you’re finding value bets.
- If not, it’s time to adjust your strategy.
This is the #1 habit of successful bettors.
Final Tips: How Do Sportsbooks Work?
To beat bookies, you need to understand them.
Bookmakers set odds based on models, not feelings.
They try to balance money on both sides, so they win no matter what.
That means:
- They can make mistakes.
- Especially early.
- Especially in small markets.
Your job is to find those mistakes and bet when the odds are in your favor.
In Summary, 7 Quick Value Bet Tips are:
- 1. Watch for fast-moving odds, and act early.
- 2. Bet on small leagues where odds are less accurate.
- 3. Use logic or basic stats to predict outcomes.
- 4. In horse racing, focus on recent form and conditions.
- 5. Compare different sportsbooks for the best odds.
- 6. Look for hidden angles like team news or motivation.
- 7. Track your bets and learn from your results.
Stick to these, and you’ll be finding value bets every week, while most punters keep losing.