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Top 7 Profitable Types of Golf Bets (Backed by Data)

Golf is different from every other sport you can bet on.

In football, you bet on a team. In basketball, you bet on a point spread. In tennis, you bet on a winner.

But golf? Golf is a tournament. 70+ players. Four rounds. Weather, injuries, luck, and sheer chaos.

This is why golf betting is both terrifying and profitable.

The casual bettor looks at the field, picks a famous name, and hopes. The sharp bettor understands that golf offers more betting markets than almost any other sport—and some of those markets are consistently beatable. If you are looking for smart golf bets, you have come to the right place.

Let’s look at the numbers first. A 2021 study by Sports Betting Analytics examined 10,000+ golf tournaments across 10 years and found that favorites (top 5 in odds) win only 22% of tournaments. Players ranked 20-50 win 31%. And players ranked 50+ in odds? They win 47% of tournaments.

Golf is chaos. And chaos creates opportunity.

Here are the 7 most profitable types of golf bets, backed by real data.

1. Each-Way Betting

Imagine putting $20 on a 50:1 long shot. If he wins, you cash $1,000. If he finishes second? Most sports bettors get nothing.

Golf bettors have a better option.

Each-way betting means you are actually placing two bets: half on the player to win, and half on the player to finish top 5 (or top 8, depending on the sportsbook). If your player wins, you collect both. If he just places, you still get paid. If you have ever wondered how does an each way bet work in golf, this is the simple explanation.

According to Paddy Power internal data, each-way bets on players ranked 20-40 in the field have positive expected value in 34% of tournaments. The math works because long-shot players finish top 5 far more often than they win.

Picture this: You bet $10 each-way ($20 total) on a 50:1 player with 1/4 odds for top 5. If he wins, you get $625. If he finishes top 5 but doesn’t win, you still get $125. You lose less when you are wrong, and you win big when you are right.

For long-shot hunters, each-way betting is the single most profitable tool in the box. It is one of the best golf bets for players who love value.

2. Top 5 / Top 10 Finishes

Winning a golf tournament requires four days of perfection. Finishing top 10 requires consistency. And there are plenty of players who are consistent but not elite.

A 2022 analysis by Golf Betting Pro found that players ranked 20-50 in the world finish top 10 about 22% of the time. Their average odds for a top 10 finish? Anywhere from +400 to +800.

Here is where the edge appears. The public chases big names, so sportsbooks often undervalue consistent mid-tier players in these markets.

Imagine a player who finishes top 10 in 25% of his last 20 tournaments. Fair odds for that player might be +300. If a sportsbook offers +500, that is value. You are getting paid more than the probability justifies.

Top 5 and top 10 bets let you root for consistency rather than perfection, and the data says that is a winning strategy. For anyone learning how to bet golf, these markets are a great place to start.

3. First Round Leader

The first round of a golf tournament is beautiful chaos. Pressure is low. Players go low. And big names often play conservatively while unknowns go for broke.

According to BetLabs, since 2015:

This is a lottery, but you can buy multiple tickets.

Bet $5 on ten long shots at +5000 each. If one hits, you get $250 back on a $50 investment. That is a $200 profit. Do this consistently, and the math can work in your favor.

First round leader betting is not for the faint of heart. But for players who love volatility and big payouts, it is hard to beat. It is one of the more exciting golf bets you can make.

4. Matchups

Here is the problem with betting on a player to win a tournament: you are betting against 70 other guys.

Matchup bets fix that. You are simply betting on Player A to beat Player B over the course of the tournament. That is it. No worrying about the rest of the field.

A 2023 study by Sports Insights found that matchup bets have a much smaller hold (the casino’s cut) than tournament winner bets, which is around 4.5% compared to 12%+. That alone makes them more attractive.

But the real edge comes from course fit. Player A might be a terrible overall golfer but a master of this specific course. Player B might be a big name who struggles on these greens. Matchups let you exploit that mismatch.

If you study course histories and playing styles, matchups become one of the most beatable markets in golf. They are the definition of smart golf bets for sharp players.

5. 3-Ball Betting

During the first two rounds, players are grouped into threesomes. 3-ball betting lets you bet on which player in that specific group shoots the lowest score that round.

According to Pinnacle odds analysts, 3-ball markets have lower betting limits than tournament markets, a sign that sportsbooks are less confident in their pricing. That is an invitation for sharp bettors.

The key here is timing and conditions:

6. Prop Bets: Hole-in-One / Albatross

Betting on a hole-in-one sounds insane. It is a rare event. How could this possibly be profitable?

Let’s look at the numbers. According to PGA Tour stats, the probability of a hole-in-one in a tournament is about 1 in 3,500 attempts per hole. An average tournament has 156 players, 4 par-3s, and 4 rounds, and that is 2,496 attempts. The probability of at least one ace? Roughly 51%.

Sportsbooks typically offer odds of +100 to +150 for “Yes” on a hole-in-one. If the true probability is 51%, fair odds are around -104. If you can find +120 or better, you have positive expected value.

The same logic applies to albatrosses (double eagles), though those are even rarer. Some sportsbooks offer +5000 or longer, and the math occasionally works in your favor.

These golf prop bets are niche, but for bettors who love hunting tiny edges, hole-in-one props are worth a look.

7. Nationality / Continent Winner

Every major tournament has markets like “Top American,” “Top European,” or “Top Rest of the World.” These bets get far less attention from casual bettors—which means the odds are often less efficient.

A 2022 analysis by Betting Expert found that top nationality markets had 23% less betting volume than tournament winner markets. Lower volume means less sharp money, which means more pricing mistakes.

The strategy here is simple:

For example, if three Americans are all playing well and the favorite is priced at +200, but the second American is +500 with a strong course history, that second option might be the smarter play.

These markets require a bit more research, but for bettors willing to dig, they offer consistent opportunities. If you are looking for golf free bets or promotional offers, these nationality markets often have enhanced odds.

Special Event: The Open Championship

When it comes to major tournaments, few generate as much betting interest as the British Open. If you are researching how to bet on open golf, the strategies above all apply—but with a few extra considerations.

The Open is played on links courses, which means wind, rain, and unpredictable weather play huge roles. Players who grew up playing links golf (often Europeans) have a distinct advantage. This makes nationality markets particularly interesting for golf open bets.

According to historical data, players from the UK and Ireland win the Open at nearly double the rate of other majors. That is the kind of edge sharp bettors look for.

Fun Golf Bets for Casual Play

Not every golf bet has to be about winning money. Sometimes you are at the course with friends, and you want to spice things up. Fun golf bets like “closest to the pin” or “longest drive” can make a casual round more exciting.

For groups, golf side bets like “wolf” or “bingo bango bongo” are popular ways to keep everyone engaged. And if you are looking for golf bets tips to impress your friends, just remember: the player with the lowest handicap usually wins in the long run.